White.

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Some info courtesy of Sputnik  [controlled media outlet?] regarding the White Helmets. Self-described Syrian civil defense workers independent of the Syrian regime. As accused by the Russian  White Helmets in league with those adversaries of the despot Assad.

1. "Aleppo Chemical Attack May Be Work of White Helmets - Russian MoD (PHOTO, VIDEO)"

"Moscow and Damascus have repeatedly accused the White Helmets NGO of staging a number of provocations in Syria involving chemical weapons attacks to influence public opinion and provide foreign powers with a justification for interventions in the Arab country."

2. "White Helmets Stage Attacks to Give Pretext to US to Attack Syria – Prof"

"Haaretz reported that Turkey has dispatched troops to Idlib, Syria to reinforce its presence in the province. The reinforcements come despite the Turkish defense minister’s recent warnings against a military solution."

White Helmets the allegation of staged FALSE FLAG chemical attacks quite common in controlled [?] Russian media outlets such as Sputnik, Russian Times, etc. Assad not guilty as charged by the White Helmets?

A devoted reader to the blog has a better handle on the situation with the White Helmets? I am at a loss. Secret services of the various interventionist nations involved in the Syrian Civil War knew the correct answer to the FALSE FLAG accusations?

coolbert.

CBRN.

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Yet one more state-of-the-art piece of Russian military hardware as having been sent to Syria. Field test under real-world conditions.

Thanks to the tip and story from Strategy Page:

"NBC Weapons: CBRN In Syria"

"December 6, 2018: In late 2018 Russia, sent its latest CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear) detection vehicle into a combat zone for the first time. This RKhM-6 CBRN is a modified version of the 14 ton BTR-80 8x8 wheeled armored vehicle. The turret is augmented with a similar structure containing sensors for various toxic materials. There is also a thermal imaging sensor . . .  Chemical weapons have been used numerous times in Syria and there are conflicting accusations about who is responsible."

CONFLICTING ALLEGATIONS AND ACCUSATIONS.

The Syrian government, the Russians and the despot Assad all say the reports of chemical weapons attack are unsubstantiated and bogus. Propaganda. Even FALSE-FLAG operations as perpetrated by those in opposition to Assad!

The White Helmets, those self-described Syrian civil defense workers as allied with the anti-Assad rebels say the regime in Damascus is responsible for chemical warfare attacks of a repeated nature.

So WHO exactly is to blame? A RKhM-6 can help resolve the matter?

"Truth is the first casualty of war!" This is so? The devoted reader to the blog must decide this for themselves?

coolbert.

A759.

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French to the rescue?

From the latest edition of the DEBKAfile news letter:

"A French spy ship reserved for trouble spots joins USS Truman in Syrian waters"

24 November.

"The French Dupuy de Lome spy ship [A759] has reached Syrian waters and begun operating in conjunction with the USS Harry Truman and its five-ship strike force . . . the Dupuy le Lome, is reserved by the Directorate of Military Intelligence of France (DRM) for deployment to the world’s flash points ahead of or amid military flareups . . .  Beamed to the French ship is intelligence gathered by US reconnaissance aircraft in the air over Syria since last May. These USAF MC-12S EMARSS and MC-12W Liberty planes have for some months been making passes over Syria from their base on the island of Crete. command centers."

Not so much "spy" as intelligence gathering.

Read further of the MC-12, EMARSS and MC-12W aircraft and missions.

"Américains et français ensemble. merci et tout va bien"

coolbert.

Unified.

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C^3 = Command, control. communications.

Again belatedly so from that latest edition of the DEBKAfile news letter:

"Syria's S-300s will be integrated in Russia's national nuclear C^3 command and control system"

3 October.

"When Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Oct. 2 that the 'unified' S-300 air defense systems in Syria will be installed in Syria by Oct. 20, he meant its integration in the Russian homeland system. That is the real import of Moscow's response to the downing of its Il-20 spy plane on Sept. 17 . . . Putin seized on the disaster to establish in Syria an advanced air defense weapons system linked not only to the Russian Khmeimim Air Base in Latakia, but integrated in Russia's own C^3 command, control and communications system against nuclear attack."

During the era of the Cold War Soviet air defense referred to as PVO Strany. Air Defense of the Homeland. That combined force of surface-air missiles, manned interceptors, radars and anti-aircraft -artillery.

PVO now gone since the time of having merged with the Russian Air Force.

Syria and Russian air defense now a combined and unified entity with robustness that cannot be denied. A regional threat beyond mere borders!

Unprecedented and ominous and obviously of concern to the Israeli primarily so?

coolbert.

Reach.

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Dress rehearsal? A show of force? Iranian missiles and drones with an impressive demonstration of regional reach and capability.

Belatedly from that latest edition of the DEBKAfile news letter:

1. "Rev Guards fire 8 missiles from Iran against ISIS in E. Syria"
   
1 October.

"Tehran state media reported that on Monday, Oct. 1 IRGC missiles targeted the 'headquarters of the terrorists' [Islamic State] east of the Euphrates in Syria in reprisal for their attack on a military parade in Ahvaz on Sept. 8, which killed 30 people and injured scores. The missiles were fired from the Iranian Kurdish region of Kermanshah. It was the second time in three weeks that the Revolutionary Guards had fired surface missiles from their base in Kermanshah at a target outside Iran."

2. "Strategic breakthrough for Iran in unimpeded drone-missile attack on E. Syria"
   
2 October.

"Neither Israel nor the US intervened when Iran broke new strategic ground on Monday, Oct. 1 by sending a squadron of 11 stealth UAVs to attack ISIS [Islamic State] in E. Syria . . . The attack drones were greater cause for concern than the 8 surface missiles the Revolutionary Guards launched from their base in Kermanshah in western Iran. Like the missiles, the assault drones cut through Iraqi air space to their targets in Syria without asking Baghdad for permission, but, unlike the missiles, they also returned to home base by the same route unhindered."

THIS IS ALL A WARNING TO THE ISRAELI? THE IRANIAN SENDING A MESSAGE LOUD AND CLEAR?

See also this War is Boring Internet web site article the topic of which is the Iranian UAV program.

coolbert.

Krashukha-4.

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Russian response in measure to the shoot-down of the Il-20 Coot reconnaissance as promised has now been delivered.

From the latest edition of the DEBKAfile newsletter.

Russian all-encompassing electronic warfare [EW] jamming system now has been delivered to Russian [?] forces in Syria. Israel beware!

"Russia's first Krasukha-4 electronic warfare unit lands in Syria. It can jam spy satellites, enemy radar"

25 September.
   
"The Russian Krasukha-4 mobile electronic warfare system landed in Syria on Tuesday, Sept. 25. It was unloaded at the Russian Khmeimim Air Base near Latakia, one day after Russian Defense Minister Gen. Sergei Shoigu pledged systems for jamming systems of combat aircraft attacking Syria, in punishment for Israel's alleged role in downing the Russian IL-20 spy plane."

"The Krasukha-4 can jam communications systems, disable guided missiles and aircraft, and neutralize Low-Earth Orbit spy satellites and radars (AWACS) at ranges of 150-300km, covering northern and central Israel. The Russian EW system can also damage enemy EW. The IDF has no operational experience of the Krasukha-4, but the Americans have."

Israeli warplanes attacking targets in Syria, NOT EVEN IF INTRUDING SYRIAN AIRSPACE to be subjected to Russian jamming. Jamming to include the denial of GPS guidance systems as to be found on Israeli air-to-ground missiles such as Delilah, Sky Sniper, Rampage.

THIS SITUATION INTENSE, WITHOUT PRECEDENT. DAYS OF GOG AND MAGOG?

coolbert.

S-200 Syria.

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From an Internet web site and the translation from Russian by Al some further info [excerpts] as per the shoot-down of the Russian Il-20 Coot reconnaissance warplane.

A hot topic and finally [?] we have some expert insight. And as copied  more or less in entirety the comments [from the translation] by the Russian officer [ex] Yuri Alexeev:

“Since I [Yuri] studied the S-200 system at military school and then served at it for many years, I can state the following: the Arabs could not have confused an F-16 with an IL-20…"

[as to Yuri being a real live person with the purported background I cannot say with any certainty.]

“All the surfaces of a jet plane reflecting the radar beam are immobile. That’s why the reflected signal formed by the plane’s several ‘hot spots’ has roughly the same frequency and looks like three adjacent vertical lines."

“On the other hand, due to the Doppler effect, a turboprop plane (its rotating propellers create various Doppler additions to the signal frequency) produces a signal in the shape of multiple vertical lines that fill practically the whole radar screen."

“Any training of radar operators and other crew members starts from explaining these very differences. I’m sure our instructors who trained the Arab crew did just that…"

“It has to be said that the S-200B system is complex to maintain and operate. All sorts of procedures are involved in launching a rocket…"

“If the crew managed to launch a missile, they were clearly trained and definitely knew the difference in the footprints of a jet and a turboprop plane…"

“There’s a theory that the Syrian crew followed and attacked an F-16 that then performed an evasive maneuver, pushing into the radar coverage our plane that has a much larger reflective surface. The missile re-targeted it automatically and a hit occurred."

“Yes, that’s possible – but only if our plane was ‘lit up’ by the radar. If there had been no reflected signal, the missile would have self-destructed. That means the Arabs had been tracking our plane and therefore saw the reflected signal on the radar screen."

“Moreover, to re- target, the operator had to switch manually to the automatic tracking of the new target…"

“In my [Yuri] opinion, the Arabs knew what they were tracking and launched a missile deliberately. This is a matter of ‘corporate ethics’."

“Losing a target is the worst thing that can happen to an AA [anti-aircraft] officer. When we were on duty, we were issued pistols. Being young, we’d ask our commanders what the guns were for. They’d reply that, if you lose a target, go and shoot yourself, to save the paperwork at the court martial.

“All personnel at AA missile systems knew that still having un-launched rockets after an enemy raid was a guaranteed death sentence for themselves. It’s likely that the Arabs had been imbued with that principle, so they fired at whatever they saw.”

[readers will recall from the First Gulf War seeing images of the sky over Baghdad during night raids by American combat warplanes. The entire sky filled with rounds AAA rounds being fired and various detonations occurring. Arab AAA crews tend to be quite trigger happy!!]

SYRIAN SURFACE-TO-AIR MISSILE FIRING PERSONNEL MANNING THE S-200 SYSTEM COULD NOT HAVE MISTAKEN THE ISRAELI F-16 FOR THE IL-20 COOT? THIS SHOOT-DOWN COULD NOT HAVE BEEN A CASE OF FRATRICIDE AND MISTAKEN IDENTITY!

As I have said before at least in my mind this all bears a resemblance to the Gulf of Tonkin incident from over fifty years ago now.

RATHER THE COOT INCIDENT IS A FALSE FLAG OPERATION INTENDED TO CREATE A CRISIS TO BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF? WHOA BOY!

You the devoted reader to the blog decide for yourself but do so with caution. Once more also thank you Al!

coolbert.

Rampage II.

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The missiles of September, Middle East style!

Consider and read the whole article courtesy of Yoav Limor and the Sheldon Adelson Internet web site Israel Hayom. The Israeli perspective the shoot-down of the Russian reconnaissance warplane and what is transpiring in the aftermath thereof. AS DEEMED A STRATEGICAL CRISIS FOR THE ISRAELI!

 "A tactical incident turned strategic crisis"

"A week after Syrian air defenses accidentally downed ‎a Russian reconnaissance plane over Latakia, this ‎tactical incident has evolved into a serious ‎strategic problem."

"Russia's insistence that Israel was to blame for the ‎incident and the harsh messages coming out of the ‎Kremlin leave little doubt, even among the most ‎optimistic pundits, that reality in Syria is about ‎to change." ‎

SYRIAN TARGETS AS SUBJECT TO ISRAELI ATTACK  MORE LIKELY IRANIAN WEAPONS STORAGE FACILITIES.

Attack also I reasonably infer by Israeli warplanes using stand-off missile systems. Syrian airspace not actually intruded by F-16, F-15, F-35. Aircraft not even needing to violate Syrian airspace as deemed to successfully destroy a target within Syrian territory.

Stand-off missiles to include: * Delilah * Rampage * Sky Sniper or even * EXTRA. [the latter ground-launched]

THAT ISRAELI STRATEGIC CRISIS WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF A MOST RECENT RUSSIAN TWEET EASILY UNDERSTOOD!

    #Shoigu: "#Russia will jam satellite navigation [GPS], on-board radars and communication systems of combat aircraft that attack targets on #Syria/n territory, in the regions over the waters of the #Mediterranean Sea bordering #Syria"

"REGIONS OVER THE WATERS OF THE MEDITERRANEAN BORDERING SYRIA!"

Israeli warplanes even over the Mediterranean and beyond traditional Syrian airspace might now be subject to Russian attack, both direct and indirect!!

Consequences as well might be feared to be most terrible!

coolbert.

S-300.

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Russian response to the downing of the Il-20 reconnaissance warplane retaliation as previously hinted at least to this extent indirect. Thanks to the Investment Watch blog for the heads-up.

"Russia Retaliates to Downed Airplane: Israel Will No Longer Be Capable of Bombing Syria With Impunity"

The Russian two-step in action to consist of:

1. Provide Syrian air defense with an upgraded and more capable S-300 surface-to-air missile system.

2. Jamming of all weapons systems [electronic guidance] used by aggressor warplanes [Israeli] firing at targets located within Syrian territory.

See the Maxim Suchkov tweet regarding item # 2.

    #Shoigu: "#Russia will jam satellite navigation [GPS], on-board radars and communication systems of combat aircraft that attack targets on #Syria/n territory, in the regions over the waters of the #Mediterranean Sea bordering #Syria"

The Syrian will be ready and able in an instance to deploy and use in an effective manner the S-300? Russians will be embedded with the Syrian operators? A push-the-button-now sort of familiarity will be needed?

coolbert.

DMZ Syria.

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World War Three has been averted? Thank President Erdogan of Turkey if this is so!!

From Freeper and thanks to same.

"US military welcomes Russian-Turkish DMZ agreement in Syria....."

"The U.S. military Tuesday said it supported a plan to establish a demilitarized zone in northern Syria that would separate rebels in their last stronghold from advancing government forces. The agreement to create a buffer zone was worked out Monday in a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held in Sochi, Russia. Russia’s defense minister said that under the agreement, Syria would refrain from launching an offensive on Idlib Province, the last major rebel stronghold."

Erdogan having in mind primarily the Uighur? Ethnic Turkish people who have established themselves in that area of Syria in/around Idlib.

A massive and overwhelming attack on Idlib by a combined Russian/Syrian/Hezbollah/Iranian force has been averted? A negotiated settlement can be amicably arrived at? Hard to see that the case but let us hope for the best.

See previous blog entries the topic of which was Idlib.

http://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2018/09/china-idlib.html

http://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2018/09/atw.html

Cooler heads are now going to prevail?

coolbert.

GoT.

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Coot gone. Follow-up number two. From Freeper.

We now have a more cogent and reasonable explanation of what occurred with the Russian Il-20 Coot surveillance warplane shoot-down.

ISRAEL IS INVOLVED BUT ONLY INDIRECTLY SO?

THIS DOES SOUND AS GULF OF TONKIN [GoT] DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN! INDEED!!

1. "BREAKING NEWS: Russian Aircraft Downed.. Israelis Set Plane Up..Right To 'Adequate Response'"

"Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has expressed his outrage to Israel's Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman after 15 Russian servicemen died when their plane was shot down by Syrian air defenses during a sudden Israeli air attack. Russia's Defense Ministry says 4 Israeli F-16's used the larger Russian IL-20 plane as a decoy for their attack on the northern Syria city of Latakia."

2. "Syria Shoots Down a Russian Military Plane, and Moscow Blames Israel"

"Syrian antiaircraft missiles shot down a Russian military aircraft carrying 15 service members off the Syrian coast Monday night, the Russian Defense Ministry said. Moscow angrily blamed the Israeli military for what appeared to be a case of friendly fire, saying the Israelis were conducting air raids in the area and had given only a minute’s warning, too little for the Il-20 surveillance plane to fly out of harm’s way."

COOT USED AS A SHIELD BY ATTACKING ISRAELI WARPLANES?  IF THE ISRAELI DID SO IN A DELIBERATE MANNER THIS IS GOING TO BE CONTENTIOUS.

An "adequate response" I infer to some sort of mean retaliation in kind. Most worrisome!

coolbert.

Coot II.

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Coot gone follow-up number one.

Gulf of Tonkin deja vu all over again? As I feared. So many possible culprits? Even fratricide.

Hold onto your hats everyone. This could get grim fast.

From various sources and the original tip from Al.

1. "Putin Says Israel Didn't Down Russian Aircraft; Netanyahu Offers Condolences"

"Earlier, Russia blamed downed military aircraft on Israel's 'deliberate provocations' striking Syria ■ France denies involvement, U.S. says plane shot down by Syrian air defense systems"

2. "Russia blames Israel after military plane shot down off Syria"

"Russia has said Syria shot down one of its military planes - but laid the blame for the deaths of the 15 personnel on board with Israel."

The Israeli did it. The Israeli did not do it. The Syrian did it. Etc. 

At this juncture cooler heads appear to be prevailing. I would hope so. A misinterpretation of events can lead to misguided and unwanted retaliation the consequences of which are both undesirable and unpredictable.

Nebel des Krieges!  Fog of war!

coolbert.

Coot IL-20.

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Coot is gone! Fratricide Syria! 

This how a pattern of escalation spiraling rapidly out of control can begin.

Thanks to the tip from Freeper and further info as per the Aviationist.

1. "Syrian regime accidentally shoots down Russian military plane"

"A Russian maritime patrol aircraft with multiple personnel on board was inadvertently shot down by Syrian regime anti-aircraft artillery on Monday after the Syrians came under attack by Israeli missiles, according to a US official with knowledge of the incident"

My instantaneous thought was that this was RUSSIAN air defense shooting down their own aircraft. NOT the Syrians!

2. "Russia has deployed at least one Il-20 Coot spy plane to Syria"

"Along with the 28 combat planes that have arrived at al-Assad International Airport via Iran hiding under Il-76 cargo planes last week, the Russian Air Force has deployed at least one Il-20 Coot surveillance plane to Syria."

"Even though satellite imagery has not yet unveiled its presence on an apron at the airfield near Latakia, an Il-20 Coot spy plane has already arrived in Syria to reinforce the Russian contingent, according to one of our sources."

COOT analogous to the American P-3 Orion. "Spy plane" as referred with international and military markings not a SPY PLANE as that word SPY ordinarily, commonly and generally understood. Coot rather a reconnaissance and surveillance warplane.

Also my instantaneous reaction was GULF OF TONKIN INCIDENT!  The Russian will seek [hope not!!] some sort of misguided vengeance? As described before, there will occur a pattern of retaliation and escalation of hostilities between international players in the Syrian Civil War that will "spiral" out of control.

coolbert.

China Idlib.

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NOT in almost six hundred years has such a thing occurred!

Chinese marines poised and ready? The assault on Idlib if and when it occurs to include Communist Chinese military contingents?

Continuing from the latest edition of the DEBKAfile newsletter.

"China to join Idlib offensive, took part in Russian Mediterranean drill"
   
10 September.

"Chinese warships, fighter jets and bombers took part in the big week-long Russian naval exercise in the eastern Mediterranean that ended on Saturday, Sept. 8 . . .  It was Beijing's first military participation in the seven-year Syrian war and it has been kept under close wraps by Moscow, Washington and Jerusalem. Our military sources report that 3,500 Chinese marines are on standby for flights to Syria to join the Russian-Iranian-Syrian campaign for retaking Idlib province from rebel hands . . . Beijing has a special interest in this campaign in view of the strong presence among the jihadist groups holed up in Idlib of several thousand Uighur Islamists . . . members of the banned Turkistan Islamic Party . . . Al Qaeda's branch in China."

NOT SINCE THE FIFTEENTH CENTURY HAVE CHINESE MARINES GONE INTO COMBAT SO FAR FROM HOME! IDLIB OF CONCERN  TO BEIJING THOSE UIGHUR COMBATANTS NOMINALLY CHINESE NATIONALS.

coolbert.

ATW.

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To the end!

Here begins a series of blog entries items of interests as extracted from the latest edition of the DEBKAfile newsletter.

"Putin is ready go all the way against the US in Syria. Where does this place Israel?"
   
10 September.

"After a series of aerial bombardments, the Russian-Syrian-Iranian offensive to gain control of Idlib, the last rebel stronghold in Syria, is ready to go, having meanwhile gained a valuable increment of Hizballah fighters, who were redirected to Syria after returning home . . . The stakes in Idlib is so high that the US and Russia have massed large-scale naval and aerial might in the region and British and French forces are on high alert, especially after Moscow's warning that Russia would hit back at pro-American targets in eastern and northern Syria for an Western attack on Iranian/Syrian forces taking part in the Idlib offensive."

Russians and their allied elements poised and ready. Idlib in the cross-hairs. Syrian Arab Army [SAA] having made preparations[?]  to use poison gas during  the assault.

THIS HAS THE MAKINGS OF BECOMING A MUCH WIDER REGIONAL WAR WITH A MULTIPLICITY OF INTERNATIONAL PLAYERS. THAT RED LINE OF POISON GAS ATTACK INVITES RETALIATION WITH THE PROSPECT OF ESCALATION NO ONE WANTS!

coolbert.

Idlib III.

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Show of force!! Marines let's go Syrian style! A red line has been drawn in the sand?

Conclusion!

As seen at the Free Republic Internet web site:

"US Marines launch live-fire air assault into Syria desert in 'strong message' to Russia"

"More than 100 U.S. Marines launched an air assault in the southern Syrian desert backed by artillery fire to send a 'strong message' to Russia not to send their forces inside a restricted area near an American military outpost, two U.S. defense officials have told Fox News. The show of forces comes as the leaders of Iran, Russia and Turkey are meeting Friday in Tehran to hammer out their next steps in the seven-year Syrian civil war ahead of an expected offensive led by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces into the country’s northwest Idlib Province."

Cross the red line and American intervention will occur beyond what has already been the case in Syria. A regional conflict can escalate quickly in an undesirable manner with consequences unforeseen!

coolbert.

Idlib II.

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Everyone is making ready! This could go from bad to worse and quick! Idlib!

From the latest edition of the DEBKAfile:

1. "Trump's Syria envoys arrive in ME: US says no to Idlib offensive"

2 September.

"Two senior US envoys for Syria arrived in Jerusalem on Sunday, Sept. 2 to follow up on President Donald Trump's decision to challenge Russian strategy in Syria as well as Iran. James Jeffrey, Special Representative for Syria engagement, and Joel Rayburn, Special Envoy for Syria, will continue from Israel to Turkey and Jordan . . .  Their first priority for clothing US policy with a substantial pro-active role is to avert the scheduled Russian-Iranian-Syrian offensive against Idlib, the last Syrian rebel bastion."

"Moscow responded to this US turnabout by sending a Russian war fleet and special forces in the eastern Mediterranean and Syria. Russia and Iran see a victory in Idlib as the triumphant finale of their successful Syrian venture, and US obstruction as designed to steal their crowning success to serve its own interests."

2. "Russian warplanes pound rebel bastions in Idlib"

4 September.   

"Russia resumed air strikes on rebel-held Idlib on Tuesday, after a 22-day pause, the London-based observatory reported. Earlier, President Donald trump warned Bashar Assad and his Russian and Iranian allies against 'recklessly attacking' the last rebel-held province of Syria.The Russians and Iranians would be making a grave humanitarian mistake to take part in this potential human tragedy," he tweeted."

3. "DEBKAfile: US-Turkish bid to delay Idlib offensive"

5 September.

"Amid heavy Russian air strikes, the US and Turkey are trying to delay the Russian-Iranian-Syrian offensive on rebel-held Idlib province. The effort is led by James Jeffrey, the Trump administration's Syrian negotiator . . . [further] that, notwithstanding differences between Washington and Ankara on the Kurdish issue, President Tayyip Erdogan may be willing to persuade his Russian and Iranian counterpart at their summit in Tehran on Friday to delay the operation for a few days for negotiations."

4. "France ready to attack Syria if chemical weapons used"

6 September.

"French forces are prepared to attack Syrian targets if chemical weapons are used in the forthcoming government offensive to retake Idlib, said French Armed Forces Chief Francois Lecointre to reporters on Thursday."

5. "Russian, Iranian, Turkish leaders meet amid divisions on Idlib"
   
7 September.

"Presidents Vladimir Putin, Hassan Rouhani and Tayyip Erdogan are meeting in Tehran Friday to chart a joint offensive with Syria for taking Idlib, the last rebel bastion in Syria. Erdogan aims to persuade the Russian and Iranian leaders to postpone the offensive or keep it low-key".

HST hard core jihadists and not going to fold easily. Have had months to prepare as did the Islamic State in Mosul.

As I said, prepare for the worst.

coolbert.

Idlib I.

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Troops are massing. Troops are always massing.

This is the final show-down? The end-game? The OK Corral Syrian style. Fill your hand.

The Syrian Civil War coming to a climactic end and soon? Idlib and the destruction of the last rebel faction/factions as in opposition to the despot Assad now at hand?

From the outstanding Internet web site South Front:

1. "In Maps: Possible Scenario Of Syrian Army Advance In Idlib"

"Multiple pro-government sources speculate that the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and its allies may soon launch a military operation against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham [HST] (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda) in the so-called Idlib de-escalation zone soon."

2. "Syria Map Update: Military Situation In Northern Hama, Southern Idlib"

"The military situation in northern Hama and southern Idlib remains complicates as both sides – the Syrina Army and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham [HST] (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda) are preparing for full-scale clashes there."

"According to the UN, there are currently about 10,000 members of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and other al-Qaeda-linked factions in the province of Idlib. All of them as well as members of their allied militant groups are deeply concerned by the expected Syrian Army advance in the area."

Soon as the softening-up process has already begun with bombardment by Russian warplanes?

That South Front web site very slick and well done. And please donate. More to follow!

coolbert.