Gatwick.

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From a recent edition of the DEBKAfile news letter some particulars of interest, the drone attack on the Gatwick airport [England], consider the Israeli connection:

"Israeli-made Drone Dome posted at Gatwick airport"

22 December.

"The anti-drone Drone Dome system developed by Israel was deployed at Gatwick airport to halt the disruption by rogue drones which forced the cancellation of 1,400 flights in 36 hours. Drone Dome was deployed at Gatwick because of its capacity to jam an intruding drone’s broadcasts and in effect cut communications between the drone and its operator . . . The British army acquired the system with its communication jamming elements and electro-optical identification component - but without its hard-kill laser."

Perpetrators of the Gatwick drone incident caught. Allegedly amateur radio-control hobby aircraft enthusiasts. Foolish people being foolish but in manner as causing a lot of ECONOMIC disruption and more importantly DANGER to human life? Perpetrators run to ground and seemingly this not a matter of terrorism.

BRITISH MILITARY FORCES  NONETHELESS DEPLOYED AND IN ACTION USING ELECTRONIC-COUNTER-MEASURES [ECM] GEAR OF ISRAELI MANUFACTURE!!

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UXB Jesus.

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It took only fifty years but it has been done. And all for the better.

UXB = UneXploded Bomb.

From the Israeli Internet web site Ynet:

"Mines finally cleared of Jesus baptism site"

"Israel's Defense Ministry clears landmines and unexploded ordnance littered around three churches in Qasr al-Yahud area, on the western bank of the Jordan River over 50 years after they were put there."

"Israeli and foreign engineers sounded the all-clear this week around three churches on the western bank of the Jordan River, near where Jesus is believed to have been baptized, after mines that had marooned the shrines for decades were cleared."

Area still not open to the public but presumably at some point will be.

Area as demined the hard and old fashioned way and not using animals to detect the mines? See previous blog entry regarding same.

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/08/hook-alice.html

coolbert.

Reach.

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Dress rehearsal? A show of force? Iranian missiles and drones with an impressive demonstration of regional reach and capability.

Belatedly from that latest edition of the DEBKAfile news letter:

1. "Rev Guards fire 8 missiles from Iran against ISIS in E. Syria"
   
1 October.

"Tehran state media reported that on Monday, Oct. 1 IRGC missiles targeted the 'headquarters of the terrorists' [Islamic State] east of the Euphrates in Syria in reprisal for their attack on a military parade in Ahvaz on Sept. 8, which killed 30 people and injured scores. The missiles were fired from the Iranian Kurdish region of Kermanshah. It was the second time in three weeks that the Revolutionary Guards had fired surface missiles from their base in Kermanshah at a target outside Iran."

2. "Strategic breakthrough for Iran in unimpeded drone-missile attack on E. Syria"
   
2 October.

"Neither Israel nor the US intervened when Iran broke new strategic ground on Monday, Oct. 1 by sending a squadron of 11 stealth UAVs to attack ISIS [Islamic State] in E. Syria . . . The attack drones were greater cause for concern than the 8 surface missiles the Revolutionary Guards launched from their base in Kermanshah in western Iran. Like the missiles, the assault drones cut through Iraqi air space to their targets in Syria without asking Baghdad for permission, but, unlike the missiles, they also returned to home base by the same route unhindered."

THIS IS ALL A WARNING TO THE ISRAELI? THE IRANIAN SENDING A MESSAGE LOUD AND CLEAR?

See also this War is Boring Internet web site article the topic of which is the Iranian UAV program.

coolbert.

Krashukha-4.

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Russian response in measure to the shoot-down of the Il-20 Coot reconnaissance as promised has now been delivered.

From the latest edition of the DEBKAfile newsletter.

Russian all-encompassing electronic warfare [EW] jamming system now has been delivered to Russian [?] forces in Syria. Israel beware!

"Russia's first Krasukha-4 electronic warfare unit lands in Syria. It can jam spy satellites, enemy radar"

25 September.
   
"The Russian Krasukha-4 mobile electronic warfare system landed in Syria on Tuesday, Sept. 25. It was unloaded at the Russian Khmeimim Air Base near Latakia, one day after Russian Defense Minister Gen. Sergei Shoigu pledged systems for jamming systems of combat aircraft attacking Syria, in punishment for Israel's alleged role in downing the Russian IL-20 spy plane."

"The Krasukha-4 can jam communications systems, disable guided missiles and aircraft, and neutralize Low-Earth Orbit spy satellites and radars (AWACS) at ranges of 150-300km, covering northern and central Israel. The Russian EW system can also damage enemy EW. The IDF has no operational experience of the Krasukha-4, but the Americans have."

Israeli warplanes attacking targets in Syria, NOT EVEN IF INTRUDING SYRIAN AIRSPACE to be subjected to Russian jamming. Jamming to include the denial of GPS guidance systems as to be found on Israeli air-to-ground missiles such as Delilah, Sky Sniper, Rampage.

THIS SITUATION INTENSE, WITHOUT PRECEDENT. DAYS OF GOG AND MAGOG?

coolbert.

S-200 Syria.

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From an Internet web site and the translation from Russian by Al some further info [excerpts] as per the shoot-down of the Russian Il-20 Coot reconnaissance warplane.

A hot topic and finally [?] we have some expert insight. And as copied  more or less in entirety the comments [from the translation] by the Russian officer [ex] Yuri Alexeev:

“Since I [Yuri] studied the S-200 system at military school and then served at it for many years, I can state the following: the Arabs could not have confused an F-16 with an IL-20…"

[as to Yuri being a real live person with the purported background I cannot say with any certainty.]

“All the surfaces of a jet plane reflecting the radar beam are immobile. That’s why the reflected signal formed by the plane’s several ‘hot spots’ has roughly the same frequency and looks like three adjacent vertical lines."

“On the other hand, due to the Doppler effect, a turboprop plane (its rotating propellers create various Doppler additions to the signal frequency) produces a signal in the shape of multiple vertical lines that fill practically the whole radar screen."

“Any training of radar operators and other crew members starts from explaining these very differences. I’m sure our instructors who trained the Arab crew did just that…"

“It has to be said that the S-200B system is complex to maintain and operate. All sorts of procedures are involved in launching a rocket…"

“If the crew managed to launch a missile, they were clearly trained and definitely knew the difference in the footprints of a jet and a turboprop plane…"

“There’s a theory that the Syrian crew followed and attacked an F-16 that then performed an evasive maneuver, pushing into the radar coverage our plane that has a much larger reflective surface. The missile re-targeted it automatically and a hit occurred."

“Yes, that’s possible – but only if our plane was ‘lit up’ by the radar. If there had been no reflected signal, the missile would have self-destructed. That means the Arabs had been tracking our plane and therefore saw the reflected signal on the radar screen."

“Moreover, to re- target, the operator had to switch manually to the automatic tracking of the new target…"

“In my [Yuri] opinion, the Arabs knew what they were tracking and launched a missile deliberately. This is a matter of ‘corporate ethics’."

“Losing a target is the worst thing that can happen to an AA [anti-aircraft] officer. When we were on duty, we were issued pistols. Being young, we’d ask our commanders what the guns were for. They’d reply that, if you lose a target, go and shoot yourself, to save the paperwork at the court martial.

“All personnel at AA missile systems knew that still having un-launched rockets after an enemy raid was a guaranteed death sentence for themselves. It’s likely that the Arabs had been imbued with that principle, so they fired at whatever they saw.”

[readers will recall from the First Gulf War seeing images of the sky over Baghdad during night raids by American combat warplanes. The entire sky filled with rounds AAA rounds being fired and various detonations occurring. Arab AAA crews tend to be quite trigger happy!!]

SYRIAN SURFACE-TO-AIR MISSILE FIRING PERSONNEL MANNING THE S-200 SYSTEM COULD NOT HAVE MISTAKEN THE ISRAELI F-16 FOR THE IL-20 COOT? THIS SHOOT-DOWN COULD NOT HAVE BEEN A CASE OF FRATRICIDE AND MISTAKEN IDENTITY!

As I have said before at least in my mind this all bears a resemblance to the Gulf of Tonkin incident from over fifty years ago now.

RATHER THE COOT INCIDENT IS A FALSE FLAG OPERATION INTENDED TO CREATE A CRISIS TO BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF? WHOA BOY!

You the devoted reader to the blog decide for yourself but do so with caution. Once more also thank you Al!

coolbert.

Rampage II.

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The missiles of September, Middle East style!

Consider and read the whole article courtesy of Yoav Limor and the Sheldon Adelson Internet web site Israel Hayom. The Israeli perspective the shoot-down of the Russian reconnaissance warplane and what is transpiring in the aftermath thereof. AS DEEMED A STRATEGICAL CRISIS FOR THE ISRAELI!

 "A tactical incident turned strategic crisis"

"A week after Syrian air defenses accidentally downed ‎a Russian reconnaissance plane over Latakia, this ‎tactical incident has evolved into a serious ‎strategic problem."

"Russia's insistence that Israel was to blame for the ‎incident and the harsh messages coming out of the ‎Kremlin leave little doubt, even among the most ‎optimistic pundits, that reality in Syria is about ‎to change." ‎

SYRIAN TARGETS AS SUBJECT TO ISRAELI ATTACK  MORE LIKELY IRANIAN WEAPONS STORAGE FACILITIES.

Attack also I reasonably infer by Israeli warplanes using stand-off missile systems. Syrian airspace not actually intruded by F-16, F-15, F-35. Aircraft not even needing to violate Syrian airspace as deemed to successfully destroy a target within Syrian territory.

Stand-off missiles to include: * Delilah * Rampage * Sky Sniper or even * EXTRA. [the latter ground-launched]

THAT ISRAELI STRATEGIC CRISIS WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF A MOST RECENT RUSSIAN TWEET EASILY UNDERSTOOD!

    #Shoigu: "#Russia will jam satellite navigation [GPS], on-board radars and communication systems of combat aircraft that attack targets on #Syria/n territory, in the regions over the waters of the #Mediterranean Sea bordering #Syria"

"REGIONS OVER THE WATERS OF THE MEDITERRANEAN BORDERING SYRIA!"

Israeli warplanes even over the Mediterranean and beyond traditional Syrian airspace might now be subject to Russian attack, both direct and indirect!!

Consequences as well might be feared to be most terrible!

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S-300.

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Russian response to the downing of the Il-20 reconnaissance warplane retaliation as previously hinted at least to this extent indirect. Thanks to the Investment Watch blog for the heads-up.

"Russia Retaliates to Downed Airplane: Israel Will No Longer Be Capable of Bombing Syria With Impunity"

The Russian two-step in action to consist of:

1. Provide Syrian air defense with an upgraded and more capable S-300 surface-to-air missile system.

2. Jamming of all weapons systems [electronic guidance] used by aggressor warplanes [Israeli] firing at targets located within Syrian territory.

See the Maxim Suchkov tweet regarding item # 2.

    #Shoigu: "#Russia will jam satellite navigation [GPS], on-board radars and communication systems of combat aircraft that attack targets on #Syria/n territory, in the regions over the waters of the #Mediterranean Sea bordering #Syria"

The Syrian will be ready and able in an instance to deploy and use in an effective manner the S-300? Russians will be embedded with the Syrian operators? A push-the-button-now sort of familiarity will be needed?

coolbert.

GoT.

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Coot gone. Follow-up number two. From Freeper.

We now have a more cogent and reasonable explanation of what occurred with the Russian Il-20 Coot surveillance warplane shoot-down.

ISRAEL IS INVOLVED BUT ONLY INDIRECTLY SO?

THIS DOES SOUND AS GULF OF TONKIN [GoT] DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN! INDEED!!

1. "BREAKING NEWS: Russian Aircraft Downed.. Israelis Set Plane Up..Right To 'Adequate Response'"

"Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has expressed his outrage to Israel's Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman after 15 Russian servicemen died when their plane was shot down by Syrian air defenses during a sudden Israeli air attack. Russia's Defense Ministry says 4 Israeli F-16's used the larger Russian IL-20 plane as a decoy for their attack on the northern Syria city of Latakia."

2. "Syria Shoots Down a Russian Military Plane, and Moscow Blames Israel"

"Syrian antiaircraft missiles shot down a Russian military aircraft carrying 15 service members off the Syrian coast Monday night, the Russian Defense Ministry said. Moscow angrily blamed the Israeli military for what appeared to be a case of friendly fire, saying the Israelis were conducting air raids in the area and had given only a minute’s warning, too little for the Il-20 surveillance plane to fly out of harm’s way."

COOT USED AS A SHIELD BY ATTACKING ISRAELI WARPLANES?  IF THE ISRAELI DID SO IN A DELIBERATE MANNER THIS IS GOING TO BE CONTENTIOUS.

An "adequate response" I infer to some sort of mean retaliation in kind. Most worrisome!

coolbert.

Coot II.

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Coot gone follow-up number one.

Gulf of Tonkin deja vu all over again? As I feared. So many possible culprits? Even fratricide.

Hold onto your hats everyone. This could get grim fast.

From various sources and the original tip from Al.

1. "Putin Says Israel Didn't Down Russian Aircraft; Netanyahu Offers Condolences"

"Earlier, Russia blamed downed military aircraft on Israel's 'deliberate provocations' striking Syria ■ France denies involvement, U.S. says plane shot down by Syrian air defense systems"

2. "Russia blames Israel after military plane shot down off Syria"

"Russia has said Syria shot down one of its military planes - but laid the blame for the deaths of the 15 personnel on board with Israel."

The Israeli did it. The Israeli did not do it. The Syrian did it. Etc. 

At this juncture cooler heads appear to be prevailing. I would hope so. A misinterpretation of events can lead to misguided and unwanted retaliation the consequences of which are both undesirable and unpredictable.

Nebel des Krieges!  Fog of war!

coolbert.

Coot IL-20.

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Coot is gone! Fratricide Syria! 

This how a pattern of escalation spiraling rapidly out of control can begin.

Thanks to the tip from Freeper and further info as per the Aviationist.

1. "Syrian regime accidentally shoots down Russian military plane"

"A Russian maritime patrol aircraft with multiple personnel on board was inadvertently shot down by Syrian regime anti-aircraft artillery on Monday after the Syrians came under attack by Israeli missiles, according to a US official with knowledge of the incident"

My instantaneous thought was that this was RUSSIAN air defense shooting down their own aircraft. NOT the Syrians!

2. "Russia has deployed at least one Il-20 Coot spy plane to Syria"

"Along with the 28 combat planes that have arrived at al-Assad International Airport via Iran hiding under Il-76 cargo planes last week, the Russian Air Force has deployed at least one Il-20 Coot surveillance plane to Syria."

"Even though satellite imagery has not yet unveiled its presence on an apron at the airfield near Latakia, an Il-20 Coot spy plane has already arrived in Syria to reinforce the Russian contingent, according to one of our sources."

COOT analogous to the American P-3 Orion. "Spy plane" as referred with international and military markings not a SPY PLANE as that word SPY ordinarily, commonly and generally understood. Coot rather a reconnaissance and surveillance warplane.

Also my instantaneous reaction was GULF OF TONKIN INCIDENT!  The Russian will seek [hope not!!] some sort of misguided vengeance? As described before, there will occur a pattern of retaliation and escalation of hostilities between international players in the Syrian Civil War that will "spiral" out of control.

coolbert.